1. History means a lot. Comparing two fighters, it’s always good to ask “Whom has this guy beaten?” The fighter with the more impressive resume of victims usually wins. A guy like Fedor Emelianenko has beaten five UFC champions, so it never surprises people when he adds to his 31-1 record. On the other hand, you should still watch out for fast starters who don’t have big-name wins but show signs of a breakout. Shane Carwin and Cain Velazquez demolished opponents in the first round repeatedly before they started fighting – and beating – big names, so the signs for success were there.
2. Review the fighters’ styles. Seeing which skills and disciplines each fighter brings to the table can help you predict results too. For example, Thiago Alves was a fearsome opponent entering his UFC 100 title fight with Georges St-Pierre. But his game was all striking and no ground. We knew GSP had great striking and amazing ground skills, so we could see right there that the match favored GSP.
3. Upsets get noticed but are still rare. Victories like Matt Serra over GSP or Dan Hardy over Mike Swick stick in our minds but it’s because they’re rare; in other words, they don’t happen often. More so than in most sports, favorites make for safe plays in mixed martial arts. Scouting reports and video make it relatively easy for us to predict results.
4. Monitor fighters’ health status. Usually, fighters are tight-lipped about any injury concerns for fear that their opponents will exploit the problem. But if you can find any injury information on a fighter before a bout, you have an upper hand. Often when a favored fighter loses, he later reveals that he was battling an injury. Minotauro Nogueira was hospitalized with an infection and had a bum knee before Frank Mir beat him last year.
5. Age isn’t everything – but chin is. Older fighters aren’t always weaker fighters – some of the sport’s best are in their mid 30s – but it’s worth monitoring how many knockouts guys have taken over the years. Randy Couture is a good example; the odds of him winning get tougher every time out, not specifically because of his age, but because he’s been knocked out several times over the years. Each knockout gets easier.
Hope you enjoyed those sportsbook 101 tips for MMA!
